Abstract. According to the statistical data of GGII, the shipment of lithium battery in China in 2021 is predicted to reach 229GWh; the year-on-year growth is expected to surpass 60%.
Benefited from the rapid development of domestic new energy automobiles and boosted by the digital, energy storage and small power market, the new energy industry of lithium battery in China develops rapidly. It has entered the mid-term stage of the growth period of the lithium battery industry (2010-2030); the market size grows in a high-speed way.
According to the statistical data of GGII, the shipment of lithium battery in China in 2020 was 143GWh, increasing by 22% on a year-on-year basis. The shipment of lithium battery in China in 2021 is predicted to reach 229GWh; the year-on-year growth is expected to surpass 60%. The shipment of lithium battery in China in 2025 is predicted to reach 611GWh; the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 is beyond 25%.
As the main force of growth scale of the lithium battery market, the shipment proportion of power battery used for new energy automobiles keeps being improved. It is expected to improve from 56% in 2020 to over 60%.
Under the considerable shipment expectation of the power battery, the material industrial chain has obviously been under pressure. In the first half of this year, the supply and demand pattern of some materials, such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate and copper foil, have undergone the reversal of the first round under mispairing. The second half is the peak season of production and sales. Besides lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate and copper foil, the supply and demand mispairing of sections like negative and diaphragm will also be aggravated.
It is worth mentioning that the power battery capacity of China and the world after 2025 still faces huge gaps. The head power battery enterprises have been making preparations, and made layouts in multiple regions with the unit of 10 billion.
Since this year, the power battery enterprises, including CATL, China Aviation Lithium Battery, BYD, Hefei Gotion, EVE Energy, REPT Energy, SVOLT and Sunwoda, have started the new-round capacity expansion competition. The newly-built capacity scale and investment scale have updated previous records. Up to now, the investment amount has been over 245 billion.
For material enterprises, how to ensure the supply guarantee for core clients is related to their sustainable development in the following years. For power battery enterprises, how to ensure the supply chain safety and meanwhile meet the cost reduction appeal of auto enterprises and terminal clients tests the wisdom and strategic judgement of the enterprise leaders.